The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.

Happy Friday! Markets may be underestimating geopolitical risk, with investors still pricing in a "Trump Always Chickens Out" TACO trade even as prolonged oil disruption above $100 raises the risk of stagflation, Coin Bureau co-founder Nic Puckrin told The Block.

In today's newsletter, VanEck says slowing bitcoin long-term holder selling signals a "potentially constructive" trend, Gemini gets hit with an investor lawsuit over its post-IPO strategy shift, Morgan Stanley advances its bitcoin ETF application, and more.

Meanwhile, Kalshi has reportedly raised over $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation in an ongoing Coatue-led round.

P.S. Don't forget to check out The Funding, a biweekly rundown of crypto VC trends. It's a great read — and just like The Daily, it's free to subscribe!

Bitcoin long-term holder selling slows, signaling 'potentially constructive' trend: VanEck

VanEck said long-term bitcoin holders have reduced selling across all age cohorts, signaling declining distribution pressure from experienced market participants.

• The asset manager's analysts described the slowdown in long-term holder selling as a "potentially constructive signal" for the broader crypto market.
• Meanwhile, bitcoin miner sales have remained steady, the firm said, despite an 11% drop in revenues and a 7% decline in mining equities month-over-month.
• Miners increased outflows to exchanges by just 1% over the past month, indicating most operators are preserving reserves rather than accelerating liquidations, according to the analysts.
• Aggregate miner balances have only fallen marginally year-over-year as newly mined supply was largely sold to fund operations and capital expenditures, they noted.
• VanEck linked subdued onchain activity and a shift toward AI-focused business models to ongoing capital pressures across the mining sector.

Gemini hit with investor lawsuit over strategy shift as losses widen and layoffs mount

Gemini faces a class-action lawsuit alleging it misled investors about its business strategy before and after its 2025 IPO.

• The firm's stock has fallen over 80% from its $32 debut to around $6 as its post-IPO pivot unsettled investors.
• Plaintiffs claim Gemini failed to disclose plans to shift toward a prediction markets-focused model while reversing international expansion and cutting roughly 25% of staff.
• The legal challenge comes as losses widened sharply to $582.8 million in 2025 and workforce reductions reached about 30% amid ongoing cost pressures, according to a Thursday shareholder letter from co-founders Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss.

Morgan Stanley advances bitcoin ETF application with amended S-1 filing

Morgan Stanley filed a second amended S-1 for its proposed spot bitcoin ETF, signaling continued progress in its application with the SEC.

• The filing confirms that Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust intends to list on NYSE Arca under the ticker MSBT.
• The bank also outlined additional launch details, including a 10,000-share basket size and a 50,000-share seed raise expected to generate about $1 million.
• Approval would position Morgan Stanley as the first major U.S. bank to sponsor a spot bitcoin ETF, while adoption remains driven largely by self-directed investors.

Coinbase launches stock perpetual futures for 'Magnificent 7' names

Coinbase launched stock perpetual futures for non-U.S. users, offering 24/7 leveraged exposure to major U.S. equities.

• The rollout includes "Magnificent 7" names like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla, as well as select ETF products linked to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, with up to 10x leverage on stocks and 20x on ETFs.
• The move advances Coinbase's "everything exchange" strategy to integrate crypto, traditional assets, and tokenized markets in one venue.
• The offering also builds on Coinbase's broader derivatives expansion, including crypto futures trading in Europe, and aims to meet what it describes as growing global demand for always-on, cross-asset trading access.

From $13,700 to $148 million: Bitcoin whale moves 2,100 BTC untouched for over 13 years

A bitcoin wallet moved 2,100 BTC worth about $148 million on Friday that had previously remained untouched for more than 13 years, according to onchain data.

• The holdings were originally received in July 2012 when they were worth just $13,700, marking a more than 10,000x increase in value during the period.
• The transaction appears to be a consolidation of UTXOs with no further movement so far, and the wallet's owner and intent remain unknown.

Looking ahead to next week

• UK CPI and PPI figures are due on Wednesday alongside U.S. mortgage data. U.S. jobless claims numbers are out on Thursday.
• U.S. FOMC member Mary Daly will speak on Friday.
• Monad, Aerodrome Finance, and Blast are among the crypto projects set for token unlocks.
• Polish Blockchain Week, Next Block Expo, Digital Asset Summit, Crypto Assets Conference, CheatCode, and Stable Summit all get underway.

Never miss a beat with The Block's daily digest of the most influential events happening across the digital asset ecosystem.