Bitcoin could face resistance between $75,000 and $85,000 even as traders turn bullish in derivatives markets ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision on Wednesday, according to CryptoQuant.
The onchain analytics firm said bitcoin traders have been positioning on the long side in perpetual futures markets in recent days, signaling expectations of further short-term upside.
"If bitcoin continues to rally, it could first find resistance at $75,000. This level represents the lower band of the Traders’ On-chain Realized Price (dotted blue line), which historically acts as price resistance in bear markets," CryptoQuant's head of research, Julio Moreno, wrote in a Tuesday report. "The next resistance level is near $85,000, corresponding to the Traders’ On-chain Realized Price (violet line). Indeed, this band acted as resistance in mid-January, after bitcoin rallied from $80,000 to $98,000, and in October 2025 (red circles)."
Moreno said short traders were liquidated as bitcoin moved above $70,000, while new long positions were opened above $73,000, indicating that bullish traders are now dominating the market.
Funding rates in the perpetual futures market also reflect the shift in sentiment. Moreno said bitcoin funding rates flipped from "extremely negative" until March 13 to "mostly positive" since March 15, showing traders are now willing to pay to open and maintain long positions. Ethereum funding rates have also remained mostly positive since March 9, briefly turning negative on March 16, he added.
Buy volume in the perpetual futures market has also outpaced sell volume. The taker buy/sell volume ratio for both bitcoin and ether has remained above 1, meaning buy orders are dominating the market, Moreno said. The ratio has risen sharply since mid-March, reinforcing that traders are betting on higher prices "at least in the short term," he added.
However, the rally may face pressure. Moreno said rising prices have led to a surge in bitcoin inflows to exchanges, which are typically associated with potential selling pressure as investors move assets to trading platforms.
Hourly bitcoin inflows into exchanges reached 6,100 BTC on March 16, the highest level since Feb. 20, with large deposits accounting for 63% of total inflows — the highest since at least Oct. 15, 2025, Moreno noted. Such spikes in large transfers could put selling pressure ahead, he said.
Bitcoin is currently trading at around $74,500, up about 1% over the past 24 hours, according to The Block's bitcoin price page.
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