Mizuho analysts on Friday said that adjusted volume for Circle's USDC stablecoin has, year-to-date, surpassed that of Tether's USDT, the world's largest USD-pegged token by market supply.

"The data shows USDC vs. USDT volumes at 64% market share. This is a reversal in a long-term trend of USDT volumes surpassing USDC in 2019-2025," Mizuho said in a research note.

Mizuho's analysts qualified "adjusted volume" as a measurement of activity across "addresses that are labeled as entities related to CEXs (Centralized Exchanges), DEXs (Decentralized), or others, or those that have not transacted > 1K transactions or 10M volume in any 30-day period."

Or, as they further contextualized, they are measuring "transfers that look like a real person or institution actually moving money." This could include companies paying suppliers, users betting on Polymarket, or funds moving between a CEX and a DeFi protocol, the analysts said.

In terms of total supply, Tether's USDT is still the clear leader globally. USDT's total market cap is $184 billion, while USDC comes in at about $79 billion, according to The Block Data Dashboard.

Mizuho's analysts said USDC is the more popular option when it comes to everyday, real-world applications, as Circle's (CRCL) stablecoin is used more for payments.

"We believe that longer term, the stablecoin winner will be the one mostly used in everyday economic activity, rather than just the highest market cap. Looking at transaction volumes, we are encouraged to see USDC taking more share of the total pie," the analysts said.