Bitcoin is holding near the mid-$70,000s as traders head into one of the most compressed stretches of global monetary policy decisions in years, with early signs of stabilization emerging across crypto markets.

The largest cryptocurrency has rebounded from a recent higher low near $66,000 and pushed back toward $76,000 this week, supported by steady spot buying and renewed institutional inflows.

Market data suggests the sell-side pressure that dominated earlier in the quarter is beginning to ease, even as conviction remains measured. Glassnode data shows momentum has improved alongside a decisive shift in spot demand, with buy-side pressure returning and ETF inflows accelerating.

Investor profitability is also recovering modestly, while capital outflows have slowed. Yet, onchain activity is still subdued and derivatives positioning is cautious, indicating the market has yet to fully re-engage.

The move higher has coincided with a short squeeze dynamic flagged by Charles Schwab’s Jim Ferraioli, who noted that rising open interest alongside negative funding rates left leveraged short positions vulnerable to liquidation.

"Perpetual futures open interest was starting to rise off very low levels," Ferraioli said. "Their funding rates are negative, which indicates there is more demand for shorts versus longs. This contrasts with other on-hain metrics that suggest investors are beginning to position for upside exposure."

Wall Street demand and macro

Institutional demand is also reasserting itself as a key driver. Spot bitcoin ETFs have recorded multiple consecutive days of inflows, including $202 million on March 16, led by BlackRock’s IBIT, according to SoSoValue data.

Weekly flows have also turned decisively positive after a prolonged stretch of outflows, with corporate buyers continuing to add to positions.

That steady bid is helping anchor price action during a volatile macro backdrop. Analysts point to a rare convergence of risk events, including the Federal Reserve FOMC, updated rate projections, and policy calls from the Bank of Japan, ECB, and Bank of England within a narrow window.

Bitcoin’s behavior in this environment is unsurprisingly drawing attention. Rather than tracking equities, the asset has shown early signs of decoupling, holding firm even as oil-driven inflation fears and geopolitical tensions weigh on traditional markets.

Some analysts say this mirrors past tightening cycles, where bitcoin found a floor ahead of risk assets. "Bitcoin appears to be stabilizing ahead of equities," Bitfinex analysts wrote in a note, noting the asset has maintained support in the low-$70,000 range despite macro shocks. They added that the $74,000 to $76,000 zone may act as near-term resistance unless the Federal Reserve signals flexibility.

However, Lacie Zhang, Research Analyst at Bitget Wallet, opined that central banks are likely to maintain their recent decisions, rather than make any aggressive pivots amid war tensions in the Middle East. "More broadly, central banks are unlikely to make abrupt policy shifts amid war-related risks, opting instead to monitor inflation pass-through from energy shocks," Zhang said, adding that tight liquidity conditions should not negatively impact institutional accumulation. "Looking ahead, when gradual rate cuts eventually materialize, even at a measured pace, they are likely to restore liquidity, improve risk appetite, and accelerate institutional participation, driving the next phase of capital inflows into crypto," the analyst noted.

Cross-asset dynamics are also shifting. Bitcoin has begun outperforming gold in recent weeks, narrowing a gap that opened during February’s drawdown. Correlation between the two assets has turned positive after months of divergence, while options markets suggest volatility expectations may be underpriced relative to historical moves.

At the same time, structural indicators point to accumulation. Exchange balances are declining, whale holdings are increasing, and long-term investors appear to be re-entering the market. Onchain metrics such as realized price and MVRV suggest bitcoin may be approaching the late stage of its current cycle, a phase typically associated with renewed accumulation.

Amid these early signs, derivative conditions have notably improved. Open interest is rising without excessive leverage, while implied volatility has fallen below realized levels — a setup that has historically preceded stronger forward returns.

Lingering jitters

Macro uncertainty remains the immediate risk. Markets are widely expecting the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady, according to the CME FedWatch tool, but forward guidance could shift sentiment, particularly with energy prices feeding into inflation expectations.

Bitcoin has historically struggled around Fed decisions, declining after the most recent meetings.

Even so, some analysts argue the current setup differs. With leverage largely flushed out earlier in the year and institutional flows providing a steady base, any policy-driven pullback could attract fresh buying rather than trigger a deeper reversal.

Beyond the near term, institutional forecasts are split. Citigroup has trimmed its 12-month targets for bitcoin and ether, citing delays in U.S. crypto legislation, per Reuters.

Longer-term projections remain more optimistic, with some industry executives continuing to draw comparisons to gold’s market size and arguing that bitcoin could eventually reach $1 million.